WHERE IS IT HEADED NEXT

Trajectory projection

Knowing where an aircraft is matters; knowing where it will be in the next minute is what lets AeroScope warn you before something crosses a line you care about. The projection is honest and physical — pure kinematics, not a crystal ball.

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How it works

Forward kinematics from the aircraft's own state

Every ADS-B report carries ground speed, track angle and vertical rate. AeroScope integrates those forward to estimate where the aircraft would be a few seconds to a minute from now if it simply kept doing what it is doing — the same dead-reckoning that keeps the live map gliding between fixes, projected ahead of "now."

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Constant-velocity core

A great-circle extrapolation along the current track at the current ground speed, with altitude carried forward by the reported vertical rate.

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Turn awareness

A sustained turn rate observed across recent reports bends the projection, so an aircraft mid-orbit isn't projected straight off its arc.

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Growing uncertainty

Confidence narrows close in and widens with time — the further ahead you look, the wider the cone of plausible positions. Short horizons are useful; long ones are not claimed.

What it's for

Anticipation, not prophecy

Geofence pre-warning — flag aircraft on course to enter a zone you've drawn, seconds before they do.
Proximity anticipation — surface traffic closing on your observer point ahead of closest approach.
Smoother display — the same forward integration removes jitter between server fixes.

Honest scope. This is short-horizon physical extrapolation — heading, speed, vertical rate and observed turn. It does not model pilot intent, ATC instructions, weather or destination, and it makes no use of reinforcement learning or trained trajectory networks. Beyond a short horizon, only the widening uncertainty cone is meaningful.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How far ahead can AeroScope project an aircraft?

Usefully, on the order of seconds to about a minute. The projection is pure forward kinematics, so its uncertainty cone widens with time; short horizons are reliable for anticipating geofence and proximity events, longer ones are not claimed to be accurate.

Does trajectory projection use machine learning or RL?

No. It is deterministic dead-reckoning from the aircraft's reported ground speed, track, vertical rate and observed turn rate. There is no reinforcement learning and no trained trajectory model — an earlier RL prototype was retired across the platform.

Why does the predicted path widen into a cone?

Because small uncertainties in speed and heading compound over time. AeroScope shows confidence narrowing near the aircraft and widening ahead, which is an honest representation of how much a constant-velocity assumption can be trusted.